Just caught up with this thread and have enjoyed reading the contrasting views.
From the three options put forward in the opening post, I lean towards 3 with a bit of 2 thrown in. Option 1 is a Dante-esque scenario for me, with people dressed in baggies being the current equivalent of the Teddy Boys we laughed at in the late 70s.
We travel around a fair distance for our fix of 60s soul and have taken in a considerable, growing number of clubs from Hastings & Brighton, up to Blackburn. We attend niters, dayers, progressive and oldies evenings. Our preference is for lesser known tunes at a niter and better known ones at a dayer. The hope at every event is to hear at least one new song that I feel I must buy when I get home.
From my perspective, the scene has evolved over the 40+ years that I have been involved, while still retaining some similarities with the scene I originally encountered. It is still populated by a mixture of “the clique” looking down on those they consider unworthy of their presence (fortunately, these are in declining numbers), the “uninitiated” aka hand-baggers/divs, or whatever other derogatory term is in favour at the moment (and their numbers seem to be on the increase), while the vast majority are like-minded people who have a shared love of the same music and want to have a good time, with a live and let live attitude. The violence has disappeared completely, and the scary older blokes in the shadows are now too old to be of any consequence.
I do agree that much of what is now being played at “northern” events is far removed from what I first listened to in 1981. What was considered “Mod” or “Girl Group” at that time (and definitely not “northern soul”) can now regularly be heard.
Some events can appear like a musical episode of Last of the Summer Wine (Audenshaw take a bow here), others have a younger element starting to make an appearance (Rugby, Keele and Splash of Soul in Bristol), while most evening events seem to be populated by people in their late 50s to early 70s looking to have a fun evening listening to music they love.
For those saying that the scene is dead, you are right - it is TO YOU, and who am I to argue with how you feel? Just please be respectful to those who are still getting great enjoyment from mixing with like-minded souls.
Dance floors are still full, albeit slower paced than 40-50 years ago. I am regularly thrilled to hear superb tunes that are new to my ears, while still enjoying old favourites. People continue to travel around the country to listen to quality DJs, many of whom are still trying to break new sounds (yes, Mr Such, I mean you). The various events cater to all tastes, be it oldies, rare/underplayed, modern - all you need to do is find the club(s) that best meet your personal taste, then go enjoy them.
Where is the scene heading to in the future? I have no idea. As long as it continues to exist, and my hearing remains good enough to hear and my knees work well enough for me to keep dancing, I’m just happy that we still have a scene to enjoy.