This is a potentially a far scarier thread than the recent 'Sam Dees / Rumour' question.
I was discussing this at some length with Kev Briscoe on the 4 hour journey down to the last Yarmouth 'Soul Essence'.
The best parallel I could come up with would be Antiques.
I buy quite a few bits of Antique furniture (and pictures and the like) and in recent years have noticed the following:
1. Mid Range stuff is dropping through the floor (Some real bargains around)
2. Top Drawer stuff is holding its own (to a very narrow market)
3. People under 40 (your average Joe) tend not to buy antiques (The IKEA generation)
4. People over 50 (average Joe again) are more concerned with their money (The 'I Fear For My Pension' and my old age generation).
Lets say you're in your early to mid 40's right now.
Picture the scene 5-10 years from now.
You're 50+.
Pension looking thin.
Time to cash in on some of your hard earned vinyl.
Who's going to buy it... at the price you're wanting.
Not the 30 somethings (they're gonna be busy lazer zapping, download, MTV stylee, video nasty, mega pixel, 100 gigabyte files down onto their remote solar powered palm tops).
Other coffin dodgers, like us, will be off loading our vinyl too, so competition will be fierce.
As we all know, price is affected by the law of supply and demand.
Supply will increase, demand will decrease (diminishing market).
Frightening prospect.
Much like the Stock Market (or Property Market), it's about knowing what to buy, when to buy, when to hold and when to sell.
Right now is still a pretty good time to buy the top dollar stuff.
The Pound is fairing quite well against the dollar so 'relative bargains' are still to be had from the US.
Mid range material though is already showing signs of devaluation.
Regular stuff, well you can hardly give it away.
Oh and it could get worse. Come a Global Pandemic, you'd swap your complete set of Red & White TMG's or Mint Shrine 45's for a fresh loaf of Warburtons. Especially if your (grand)kids are starving!
Ouch! Just read the above back to myself.... Scared myself to death.
Good job we're not in it for the money I reckon!
Please absorb and delete... before anyone else reads it!
Sean
Footnote: Will gladly take in any unwanted vinyl... before its too late...
...at the right price of course!