I've recently started a similar thread to this on a Modern Soul forum, Mike, where attendances just aint wot they used to be!
It seems that the current problem affects all strands of the scene.
Turn back the clock 25+ years, there were very few DJ's around (who could hold their own) and even fewer promoters.
The last 8 or so years though has seen a rise in popularity of the UK Soul scene (mainly via returnees) and, now that some of these lads and lasses have 'a bit more about them' everyone (it seems) wants to try their hand at DJ'ing, promoting or both.
Now as we appear to be in an overkill situation (in many counties, but certainly not all) the choice on a weekend is far too great, diluting the crowd and reducing attendances at many events.
Net result, nights that rarely live up to the hype or expectations, lacking in atmosphere and creating disappointment for all concerned.
As a consequence, the disillusioned punter believes that he can do better, and naturally, decides to give it a go himself... further fragmenting the potential audience.
It's an inevitable, unfortunate, cycle of events, that can only be filtered out through time and natural selection.
Personally, I'd rather see (or attend) a small room environment with a buzz and 50 odd punters that are up for it, than a mega room spectacular with everyone rattling around a three quarters empty dancefloor!
I guess the future is highly likely to be... reduced numbers, better quality venues and more of a listening / social environment (at least for us over 50's). However, I don't know what I'd make of that sort of set up if I was a youngster looking for a good old fashioned rave up!
Had good nights up at Thorne and Qube recently and heard great reports about such venues as Lifeline. The cream will always rise to the top, however, every venue and venture has a lifespan... and even good things don't last forever!
Sean