Interesting to see the different opinions on the way record collecting, and hence prices, will go in the future and the effect of the scene being international.
Looking at the UK scene, I think the current collectors will never be replaced by new blood in anything like the numbers needed to sustain the prices in 15-20 years from now.
Firstly I think the scene holds very little attraction to your average 18-25 year old so we are starting with numbers from a tiny pool of potential collectors. Take from that pool the number who fancy laying out 4-6 weeks wages on a record and the number shrinks again. Combine this with the fact very few of that age group have any spare cash and we are at a standstill, none of them could afford to.
What do the papers say? Your average first time house buyer is now 30. When I bought most of my rarer records, from age 20 to about 28, I was out from under my folks feet, time served tradesman hammering in the overtime to feed my vinyl cravings. The flat I was in had a mortgage for 2 years wages, that same flat today would need a mortgage for 4 years tradesman's wages. And what significant other factor in all of this has rocketed in price outwith inflation since then??? The cash just ain't there anymore for the younger collector.
At the other end of the scale there is bound to be belt tightening as older collectors start to retire, again the cash just won't be available as it was when they were working.
I couldn't comment on the scenes in mainland Europe, but would make the observation that at the time I was travelling to Mexborough and Blackburn niters on a Saturday in a car with 3 or 4 mates, there were 2 coaches leaving a nearby pub where other mates of mine were among those travelling 2-3 hours accross Scotland to go to a House club. From what I was told at the time, very few collected House records then and they cost peanuts compared to Northern. Do busy clubs equate to a healthy/wealthy record collecting scene?
I don't think there will be a crash but agree with the often repeated speculation that prices will slow significantly as more "rare" records flood the market as the older owners cash in or those who have inherrited them do. The records which I think will tumble are those along the lines of Jimmy Mack, Paris, Cecil Washington, etc which are in lots of collections but don't come up for sale all that often.
Look what happens now when an auctioned record makes a good price, a few come out of the woodwork in hope of matching that price and very often don't get anywhere near. Example; Last year JM sells Mel Williams Burn Baby Burn for about £1800,the next week one goes on Ebay for about £850.If that can happen with a rare record like that, we can see the potential for price drops if less rare records were being offered on a regular basis.
The comment earlier in the thread about the money being gone when spent on records was spot on, the record is bought and staying in the box, the cash is long gone.
Like many others, I hope there is a price drop so I can mop up my wants list, but I think there is still a long wait ahead.
Cheers,
Mark.