How long before rare soul gets put in the skip

[Haighy]

Sorry if I'm posting on the wrong topic section. 

Right I'm into Lambrettas and all things linked. Scooters are bringing eye watering values at the moment. But they have 15 years left. As the scooter boys die and kids aren't interested in being part of a cult (they seem to be happy being generic) supply will outstrip demand and they will be worth the scrap value. 

Do you think the same will happen with 45rpm rare soul? 

Discuss! 

[Timillustrator]

Yep, similar thing happened with some jazz records a few years ago. As collectors snap up everything the prices rise, when it's all gone and those collectors start to die off the price falls.

I am amazed at how quickly the values of 80's and 90's American hardcore punk records is rising, similar thing - fairly new market and suddenly people have money to but stuff they couldn't afford when they were younger. Some of it is quite staggering; not up to soul records prices by any means but very sharp increases for rare, obscure stuff.

Edited February 17, 2021 by Timillustrator

[David Meikle]

I cannot see any of our big collectors giving up on this manic love affair.

There are also millionaires involved now who wont even be bothered about what is going to come around.

The rest of us are heading for the twilight zone so it might be worth cashing in a few to compensate for those holidays missed all those years ago.

If the inheritors get off the mark quick then power to them but leave them a note in advance on pricing.

A very complex subject but I cant see anything other than a market with no future.

[Richard Free]

An increasing bunch of young guys getting into rare soul but sadly not enough to replace all us old dudes .I think the U.K. market may decline but there is an increasing appetite in other parts of the world .Lots of tunes heading back to the USA..The genuinely rare records will hold their prices but lots of common records that fetches £100 or more at the moment will be hard to shift .
Maybe the scooters will head back to Italy ? 
 

[Tomangoes]

Folks have been asking the same question since the last crash and bounce back around 85.

The rarest original 1000 will be always cherished, but the daft prices for boots pressings reissues and carvers will wain.

Within 10 years there will be another mod revival and just watch those 60 year old scooters make a comeback.

Ed

[Guest]

I think Tomangoes is on the button. If you look at the fate of doo-wop where prices continue to tumble as the collectors die then it does look likely that a similar scenario will happen to soul and R&B.  There will be a market for the seriously rare records but for the majority there will be a much reduced market. As to whether this bothers people largely depends I suspect on the reasons that you buy and collect records. Personally I don't buy records as an investment.

In the future I can't see many people being prepared to store bulky records when much of it will be downloaded onto large libraries and available at a press (well possible not even a press) of an app. The disappointing thing about this possible scenario is that the music will exist in isolation without any historical context. However its the way of the World that as people slip off the mortal coil knowledge is lost.

We are not there yet though. I see that Mr Manship has persuaded one enthusiastic collector to pay over £230 for a faux Uk beat record by Bill Oddie, the former comedian. I'm not going to offend anyone by saying what I think of that record but will add that there is still money to be made from selling old records for awhile yet.

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Duke]

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2013/apr/13/stamp-collectors-catalogues-philately-clubs?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Similar answer to a similar question. I would say it's more likely that future generations would be interested in collecting records than stamps. Hold your rarities.

Edited February 18, 2021 by Duke

[Wally Francis]

Well my son and Grandson have both got their eyes on my scooters and my son regularly raids my record collection, but always brings them back. 

[Winsford Soul]

This debate has been going on since the Casino closed in 81 and probably before that with the closure of the Wheel and Torch. Look at the prices of northern soul records at the moment.  There is no sign of it slowing down , infact the prices are still growing year on year for most items. And the rarest US and now UK ones are fetching premium prices un heard of even five years ago. 

Edited February 18, 2021 by Winsford Soul

[Dobber]

Well as we know nothing lasts forever,so my thought we be that if your a collector/dj and enjoy buying the records whatever the cost and your happy to take them to the grave then thats what you should do regardless of thoughts of longevity of value or the scene,however if youve been busting large amounts of money over the years trying to keep up with demand and prices but its affecting your everyday life,or your worried to death your gonna see your collection become worthless in a monetary sense,then get selling now! Before the market is flogged with not enough people to buy them! 

[Haighy]

8 hours ago, Tomangoes said:

Folks have been asking the same question since the last crash and bounce back around 85.

The rarest original 1000 will be always cherished, but the daft prices for boots pressings reissues and carvers will wain.

Within 10 years there will be another mod revival and just watch those 60 year old scooters make a comeback.

Ed

I hope your right

[Tomangoes]

The reality is the 50 to 70 year olds are in the money, and are still mobile.

Probably the richest ever, in numbers, due to inheritance, equity in property, generous pensions, etc. Even equity in rare soul music and classic scooters!

Of course some are poor, but those who are not are having a ball, or will be again when life gets back to something like normal.

(In turn, many of the next generation will also inherit a pile.)

Thats why this wealthy middle aged group are being targeted by hmrc....as they say, you cannot get money from those who have got none.

Ed

 

 

[Timillustrator]

Absolutely, the current market is boosted by people having money, time and thanks to technology the ability to buy, sell and value records with a high degree of accuracy. It is definitely a collectors market rather than an investors one but as the collectors decline so will the value - simple economics, the demand is driven by relatively rich informed collectors. At the moment it is not an investors market like stamps and coins are. 

[Haighy]

Tim

I think your right. I certainly didn't build my Lambretta as a investment, I spent more than I would get on ebay. 

Same with my records. I bought them because I wanted them knowing one day they will loose money. 

[Stephen Houghton]

I dont think this love affair with soul music will die ,and all that goes with it like the records ,people ,venues etc etc.it has always been talked about and it stands out from the crap that they call tunes now.so I dont think its had its day at all yet .cherish the youth that are embracing it .KTF

[Haighy]

My Lambretta 

[Zoomsoulblue]

How long before rare soul gets put in the skip ?

Am 62 and can still see me attending soul venues up till I kick the bucket - so hopefully a few years to go.

As to records and values - I’ve never brought a record for investment, so don’t care - but if you look at Tears Leroy Decca Demo brought at the casino in 77/78 - for £20 which is worth about £113 in today’s money - I guess selling it today for £113.50p am ahead of the game - win win

[Haighy]

45 minutes ago, Zoomsoulblue said:

How long before rare soul gets put in the skip ?

Am 62 and can still see me attending soul venues up till I kick the bucket - so hopefully a few years to go.

As to records and values - I’ve never brought a record for investment, so don’t care - but if you look at Tears Leroy Decca Demo brought at the casino in 77/78 - for £20 which is worth about £113 in today’s money - I guess selling it today for £113.50p am ahead of the game - win win

Hear, hear mate. 

But I still belive our tunes will go in the skip, but f##k it

[Geobuch335]

Where’s this skip going to be sited.....?

Just asking for a friend......

[Tomangoes]

Today its all about recycling.

A few punk rock acquaintances of mine around 77, used to take great delight in heating up northern soul records and making Ash trays out of them.

When the multi millionaire recycles his Frank Wilson, it could be the worlds most expensive ash tray...

Ed

Edited February 19, 2021 by Tomangoes
Spello

[Soulstrutter]

21 hours ago, Zoomsoulblue said:

How long before rare soul gets put in the skip ?

Am 62 and can still see me attending soul venues up till I kick the bucket - so hopefully a few years to go.

As to records and values - I’ve never brought a record for investment, so don’t care - but if you look at Tears Leroy Decca Demo brought at the casino in 77/78 - for £20 which is worth about £113 in today’s money - I guess selling it today for £113.50p am ahead of the game - win win

 

Edited February 19, 2021 by Soulstrutter

[Frankie Crocker]

Soul records will be the last into the skip, and the rarest will be safely stashed away. The shortage of decent contemporary releases for the masses will encourage the more discerning youngsters to embrace vinyl. Turntables, LP’s and 60’s/70’s pop are already attracting converts - good soul 45’s will always be favoured by those seeking out the best sounds. The skip will fill up with Doo-Wop, Country, surplus chart singles that sold by the million, 80’s and 90’s picture sleeves of little interest, CD collections, just about everything apart from rare soul. Sadly, tons of Motown, Atlantic and Stax will end up in the skip as there are not enough buyers for it all. Rare soul records could last for hundreds of years if cared for properly and played on high quality turntables.

[Frankie Crocker]

On 18/02/2021 at 22:30, Zoomsoulblue said:

How long before rare soul gets put in the skip ?

Am 62 and can still see me attending soul venues up till I kick the bucket - so hopefully a few years to go.

As to records and values - I’ve never brought a record for investment, so don’t care - but if you look at Tears Leroy Decca Demo brought at the casino in 77/78 - for £20 which is worth about £113 in today’s money - I guess selling it today for £113.50p am ahead of the game - win win

Manship auctioned a copy of Tears a few weeks ago for well over £500. I can’t remember the exact figure but it was nearer £800. Nobody in their right mind would ever put this record in a skip.

[Chalky]

You all seem to be confusing the collecting of records with going out.

Prices are sky high for a small minority of records, those in demand with the DJs, the classics etc.  But there is a massive market out there outside the world of Djs and dance floors and it will remain long after the last rare soul night, not that that is in sight.

The same can be said for scooters.  Scooters do seen to be popular with youngsters of today, they might not spend 1000s on rebuilds but there is a market away from the music scene.

....and what makes some think the Northern/Rare soul market is bigger than other markets such as country, doo-wop and pop?  

[Midnight Drifter]

In the end, all markets follow the law of demand and supply. In my opinion it all boils down to the question if we are able to attract enough youngsters with more or less the same kind of enthusiasm and will to maintain a scene (incl. promoting events where the records are being played out).

At the moment, many rare tunes are stashed away in the homes of passionate collectors. Once we all fade away what will our offspring do with them? 

[Chalky]

5 minutes ago, Midnight Drifter said:

In the end, all markets follow the law of demand and supply. In my opinion it all boils down to the question if we are able to attract enough youngsters with more or less the same kind of enthusiasm and will to maintain a scene (incl. promoting events where the records are being played out).

At the moment, many rare tunes are stashed away in the homes of passionate collectors. Once we all fade away what will our offspring do with them? 

Whether enough youngsters are attracted or not, it is quite clear there are not enough to sustain the scene in its present format of an all-night based club scene, very few travel now, all that aside there will still be a market for the records and always will be.  There is a large market now of younger collectors, they simply don't travel to all-nighters.  They will forge their own path, regional probably but it will still be there in some form.

[Timillustrator]

It's difficult to try and apply economic laws to it because the size of the market is difficult to predict. From purely personal knowledge the majority of DJ's are 50+, possibly 10-20% under 50 and less than 10% under 30. A lot of demand is driven by DJ's wanting to play records out. Collectors who don't DJ are more difficult to age profile because they are invisible but from my occasional foray to record fairs I'd say the vast majority are 50+ and all the collecting groups on Facebook I am in I'd say the average age is 60.

So if you fast forward 30 years, the 20 year olds are now 50 and have the money and time to collect what they couldn't before but the market could be 90% smaller, so even though there's still demand there could be 10X the supply. That's presuming we're not all living to well over 100 and still, by some miracle drug, dancing into our 80's and still collecting.

 

Edited February 20, 2021 by Timillustrator

[Chalky]

The trouble is many still look at the scene for the UK perspective.  It is worldwide now, not the scene although there are world wide elements that seek out not just the northern as we call it but the sweet, deep, lowrider etc.  But the collecting side of it is massive.  The high prices for the classics is probably UK driven by the Djs with a massive lack of imagination eager to impress.  But speak to the dealers, they have never been so busy.   Unlike the nighter scene, there are no signs of the collecting side dying off.

[Len]

Putting it in a skip can be pretty costly, but doing so sure beats queueing for the tip.

If interest does decline due to our generation getting old, and of course 'stepping off this world', it will be a really slow gradual thing.  But I hope this music continues to be enjoyed for generations to come. It would be interesting if there was a sudden 'stop' and your skip does get filled up though.

Love the title to your thread btw 

Len 

[Imperial C]

I have skips for hire, very reasonably priced.

[Winsford Soul]

2 hours ago, Imperial C said:

I have skips for hire, very reasonably priced.

And I have plenty of recycling industry experience. 

[Imperial C]

14 minutes ago, Winsford Soul said:

And I have plenty of recycling industry experience. 

Smith & Crampton Unlimited Ltd

Edited February 20, 2021 by Imperial C

[Timillustrator]

4 hours ago, Chalky said:

The trouble is many still look at the scene for the UK perspective.  It is worldwide now, not the scene although there are world wide elements that seek out not just the northern as we call it but the sweet, deep, lowrider etc.  But the collecting side of it is massive.  The high prices for the classics is probably UK driven by the Djs with a massive lack of imagination eager to impress.  But speak to the dealers, they have never been so busy.   Unlike the nighter scene, there are no signs of the collecting side dying off.

Good point, I have no idea what influence Japan has on soul record collecting? Any Idea? I've seen Japanese collectors pay insane money for other music memorabilia, like $1,000 for T Shirts and stuff. 

[Frankie Crocker]

In the words of the mighty Jack Johnson, ‘Reduce-Reuse-Recycle...’

I am pleased to offer space for the recycling skip outside my mansion.

Reuse all maroon Doo-Wop records for ash trays or Christmas nut dishes etc.

Reduce your future need for vinyl by buying everything you can get your hands on, while you can...got a nice pair of Willie Picketts on Eastern and Soul Spot today.

Edited February 21, 2021 by Frankie Crocker
typo

[Chalky]

28 minutes ago, Timillustrator said:

Good point, I have no idea what influence Japan has on soul record collecting? Any Idea? I've seen Japanese collectors pay insane money for other music memorabilia, like $1,000 for T Shirts and stuff. 

They are a large influence, they are behind some of the high prices too of the classics, particularly auction items.  For some money is no object, in particular mint items.  They do seem to go for the more soulful, deep stuff though although there is a thriving rare soul community

[Okehsoul1952]

Wasn't too long ago...on Pat Brady's auction site....i was leading the bid on The Jades....thought i had it in the bag only to be notified by Pat that that i had lost out to a 'stronger bid' from a Japanese buyer....at the very last second!!!! Draw your on conclusions on that!  

[Tricky]

Doo Wop was really only ever a US thing.

Soul in all its forms is Worldwide now.

US collectors are no longer a minority and so much stuff plundered by us is heading back there.That is without everywhere else’s interest.

I thought lockdown,furlow  etc would curtail buying but in my experience nothing could be further from the truth.

At the moment I am mainly selling spares and doubles but I do think about a more comfortable retirement occasionally.

[Candiman]

On 18/02/2021 at 22:30, Zoomsoulblue said:

How long before rare soul gets put in the skip ?

Am 62 and can still see me attending soul venues up till I kick the bucket - so hopefully a few years to go.

As to records and values - I’ve never brought a record for investment, so don’t care - but if you look at Tears Leroy Decca Demo brought at the casino in 77/78 - for £20 which is worth about £113 in today’s money - I guess selling it today for £113.50p am ahead of the game - win win

Actually you would be just behind the game as taking inflation into account £20 in 1977 equates to £125 now. 

https://www.in2013dollars.com/uk/inflation/1977?amount=20

I started playing a game recently with some old mailing lists from the mid 70s taking records and looking them up to see their likely worth now. All over the place, there were some serious bargains hiding in the 3 for a £1 sections, but of course plenty that have not shifted at all being worth only a couple of pounds now.