Is collecting rare soul vinyl an investment

[Stateside]

Not sure if this has been a thread in its own right or whether it has been covered in other threads.

After John Manship's auctions I often take a look and if there's anything featured that I already own, then I'm showing it to the wife saying, "look how much that went for", I've got that, here, look!" ...Her reply is always the same............."sell it then and let's have the money"  Needless to say, she's not into northern soul and wouldn't have a clue what my collection is worth. In fact, I'm not sure I would know myself. There's all those £5 - £10 singles that I love, but in reality, would I really get that for them. Some of my late 60's and most of my 70's records were bought as new records, so apart from the ones that became popular and went up in value like Bettye Swann, Grover Mitchell, Lou Ragland, Martha Reeves, etc. most of them probably haven't increased in value in today's terms.

It often crosses my mind to sell, but I always seem to regret it, whenever I do. I like having that piece of history, that beautiful piece of vinyl in its original sleeve, even if it's only to look at. I don't collect to make money on them and I don't dj anymore, so it's just for pleasure.

Record dealers apart, as a collector, does rare soul vinyl value just keep pace with inflation, or can you be shrewd and make money. In terms of investment, would I have been better off putting my money into an ISA, stocks & shares, or even the building society, over time. I accept that interest rates aren't great at the moment, but, over the 47 years I've been collecting vinyl, would I for example, have been better off keeping Patrice Holloway - Love & Desire on UK Capitol.  I sold it for £40 in 1976, If I had put that money into the building society, would I now have considerably more than the current value of that same record?

Does the price of RSV only fluctuate with its popularity on the dance floor and if so, is that the best time to sell, when it's popular.

Are the current silly prices some records fetch, a spike or is it a trend ?

 

Kev

[Peter99]

Not sure if this has been a thread in its own right or whether it has been covered in other threads.

After John Manship's auctions I often take a look and if there's anything featured that I already own, then I'm showing it to the wife saying, "look how much that went for", I've got that, here, look!" ...Her reply is always the same............."sell it then and let's have the money"  Needless to say, she's not into northern soul and wouldn't have a clue what my collection is worth. In fact, I'm not sure I would know myself. There's all those £5 - £10 singles that I love, but in reality, would I really get that for them. Some of my late 60's and most of my 70's records were bought as new records, so apart from the ones that became popular and went up in value like Bettye Swann, Grover Mitchell, Lou Ragland, Martha Reeves, etc. most of them probably haven't increased in value in today's terms.

It often crosses my mind to sell, but I always seem to regret it, whenever I do. I like having that piece of history, that beautiful piece of vinyl in its original sleeve, even if it's only to look at. I don't collect to make money on them and I don't dj anymore, so it's just for pleasure.

Record dealers apart, as a collector, does rare soul vinyl value just keep pace with inflation, or can you be shrewd and make money. In terms of investment, would I have been better off putting my money into an ISA, stocks & shares, or even the building society, over time. I accept that interest rates aren't great at the moment, but, over the 47 years I've been collecting vinyl, would I for example, have been better off keeping Patrice Holloway - Love & Desire on UK Capitol.  I sold it for £40 in 1976, If I had put that money into the building society, would I now have considerably more than the current value of that same record?

Does the price of RSV only fluctuate with its popularity on the dance floor and if so, is that the best time to sell, when it's popular.

Are the current silly prices some records fetch, a spike or is it a trend ?

 

Kev

Quite a few previous threads mate;

https://www.soul-source.co.uk/forums/topic/1286-is-60s-northern-soul-vinyl-a-wise-investment/

Peter

[Soul Shrews]

Think the answear to your question stateside is yes er no er maybe.

Depends what you are selling. As you say records in demand will fetch more than you think they are worth/paid for but this has no relevance on quality.

Best to just buy records you like and enjoy them, rather than thinking about profit/investment I find

Cheers Paul

[Pete S]

No

[Baldsoulie]

Only ever spend what you are willing to lose, that way you will never be disappointed.

[Guest johnny hart]

Stateside,You should go to the many sites which will answer your questions regarding;cost of living, retail price index, value of your pound etc .To me record collecting is the mad ,bad passionate hobby you do for love of the music not For the love Of Money.

[Sceneman]

try getting dealers to pay the money despite what you may read on popsike they are skinflints who want to buy 500 at a quid each and make a good profit ,ebay is now too pricy with its high costs

[Quinvy]

The quality cheapies are nearly impossible to sell to a dealer because they have them in quantity. I mean stuff like Ric-Tic, unless you have mint white demo's

If you look at the records that continue to rise in price and hold their value, they seem to be mainly the classics that were played at Wigan, or the really rare stuff from the Stafford era.

I think you could actually invest in this type of record, as long as they were minty and you didn't play them too often. People have been saying that the bottom would drop out of the market since the seventies. But it just seems to keep getting stronger.

 

[MrsWoodsrules]

Going forward, the vinyl scene will depreciate once this generation expires.

I know people have said it since year dot about the scene, but the younger generations have the technology & means to hear the sounds they want in the main.

I believe they'll be a steep downward curve on prices on all but the proper rare & classics, sooner rather than later.

I mean, jump forward 20 years, who's gonna be around paying these ridiculous prices?... no one left, not us mugs.

Aid x

 

[Chalky]

Looking at many prices paid it is clear the buyer either hasn't done any homework or just doesn't care.  If they are buying as an investment they have all too often paid more an the previous going rate, sometimes two or three times the previous or historical prices.  The secret I always thought in an investment is to buy cheap sell at its peak? Now unless they have some insider information that anyone who also has a copy of a particular record have destroyed it then it is highly unlikely any profit will be made on any resale.

the market seems to be swamped by look a like copies so maybe the next generation (if there is a a generation left) will not care so much for the real thing, I dare bet many have given up any hope of owning the top end originals because of the crazy prices around at the minute.  

There will always be collectors but once what I believe is a "I want to be a Dj" market dwindles then so will the prices to a more sensible level because it is plainly obvious many have taken leave of any common sense.

many prices seem to have risen at the same time as the new pension rules came into effect? Whether it is pension pots being raided for vinyl money remains to be seen.

Edited October 19, 2015 by chalky

[MrsWoodsrules]

Off topic so I apologise.

Quick question, just watching Kojak from 1973 on itv4 right now, one of the actors is Gene Woodbury......

Is it that one of Ever Again fame...??

Did he do any acting?

 

cheers

Aid

Edited October 20, 2015 by MrsWoodsrules

[Mellorful]

Going forward, the vinyl scene will depreciate once this generation expires.

I know people have said it since year dot about the scene, but the younger generations have the technology & means to hear the sounds they want in the main.

I believe they'll be a steep downward curve on prices on all but the proper rare & classics, sooner rather than later.

I mean, jump forward 20 years, who's gonna be around paying these ridiculous prices?... no one left, not us mugs.

Aid x

 

Quite right, in 10 years time many who run and attend events will be in their 60's or 70's on a modest pension; the age thing may have taken its toll on the DJ population, how many would be physically capable of lugging a heavy box of 200 records around? Unless the scene suddenly gets another 10000 followers under 50 then their will be a dramatic fall in the price of vinyl. 

People tell me the NS thing is taking off in other countries but would they pay the current hefty prices for OVO; I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong but I expect many serious collectors to fall from the perch in the next 10 years and their children will probably sell up the collections As supply increases and the demand reduces (fewer collectors with large amounts of capital) the price will fall.  

I buy vinyl for the love of the music and not as an investment. 

[Stateside]

 

I buy vinyl for the love of the music and not as an investment. 

Me too!

I suppose the fact that I don't sell or trade it on must mean I'm a collector, or more likely " a hoarder"

Kev

[Steve L]

When this argument comes up people always talk about new collectors coming in to take up the slack as it were, sure some will but nowhere near the numbers disappearing as the older ones inevitably stop and/or die.

The scene is on a high at the moment numbers wise but what is the average age of attendees now? It must be heading towards 60 - another 10 years and what will things be looking like?

Less collectors = less demand = lower prices..................... absolutely inevitable.

(Just realised my post is more or less exactly the same as Mellorfuls above ) 

 

[Wilxy]

I've never bought records with the thought of investment, and furthermore find myself as obsessed with collecting as ever! Whilst my attendance of venues has nowadays waned somewhat, my love of the music still remains to the extent, that I find myself prolonging my "working life" to "feed the habit" ......so to speak.....

[Bbrich]

whether soul vinyl turns out to be a good or a bad investment over the long term is very arguable and will only be proven in the fullness of time (did anyone predict the current prices say 12,15 or 20 years ago?). However it does have a few things going for it ;

- unlike the stock market where prices can (& have) dropped drastically literally overnight vinyl prices are likely to be a much more steady decline (assuming they do decline ?) giving you the opportunity to exit at a chosen point.

- the amount of pleasure to be had from just owning and playing your collection vs a bit of interest form cash in the bank or some shares etc... !!

- I would guess that most people on here have acquired their collections at prices way below todays levels so they could take a big drop in the market before they even lose !

However for me (& maybe others) the best reason to think of buying records as an 'investment' is purely to justify to ourself (& probably the wife..) to what to any sane outsider would appear ridiculous prices for a record which you can hear for free on you tube, buy the cd or the re-issue etc...

 

 

 

[Sceneman]

if you can find a dealer willing to pay 50% of the popsike price you will be lucky so all the prices you read in the guides are not possible unless you sell direct to a collector and he may want a small discount too , ebay and paypal fees are now too outrageous to use them any more

[Dave Moore]

We're all getting a little to old for it all now. We should cash in now before it all disappears. Go get your old dusty vinyl stuff and start floggin' it off before you lose out completely. Take your mrs on that world cruise, or buy that Aston Martin you always fancied before they take yer licence off you. You KNOW it makes sense!  

Regards,

Dave

[YourArsenal]

Would love to be proven wrong, but don't think prices will go down significantly. There's plenty of young collectors popping up that will be outbidding eachother on the same rare records for years, decades to come. Think about the pressing numbers of a lot of these records (often just a few hundred, sometimes way less), and then think of the thousands of collectors around the world aged 20 to 40 today.

[Modernsoulsucks]

I'm not so sure on that.

Just looking at Tomangoe's just sold on EBay if you agree that £1000 is a bargain then only 10 bidders above that.

Not sure where thousands of collectors fit in ?

ROD

 

[YourArsenal]

Tomangoes is way out of most people's price range, and will probably remain so.

[Quinvy]

I'm not so sure on that.

Just looking at Tomangoe's just sold on EBay if you agree that £1000 is a bargain then only 10 bidders above that.

Not sure where thousands of collectors fit in ?

ROD

 

what did it go for Rod?

[YourArsenal]

Last one on popsike went for 4000 pounds… 48 bids on that.

[Modernsoulsucks]

what did it go for Rod?

https://www.soul-source.co.uk/forums/topic/343562-ebay-comp-auctions-highlights/#comment-2246422

Seems to be £4000-ish.

Price is not that relevant though.

It's the idea that there are thousands of collectors out there who will continue to drive prices upwards.

My experience of EBay is that there are few bidders really.

You still get high prices on some items but there's not a massive clamour for mid-price [£ hundreds] or cheapies either.

[YourArsenal]

I don't think prices will go up a lot, but I don't think they'll collapse in ten years because there are fewer buyers either.

[Mellorful]

I don't think prices will go up a lot, but I don't think they'll collapse in ten years because there are fewer buyers either.

When some of those collectors fall from the perch in the next 10 years, what do you think will happen to their collections?

As more of the NS community become pensioners will they be paying big money for records?

Or will the new pensioners be selling their precious vinyl to generate income to help with the modest pensions?

Are there thousands of young uns joining the scene near you to take up the slack? 

I can't see how the high price NS record collecting can continue as at present and this may be the Indian summer of Northern soul.   

I hope I'm wrong but I cant see past the inevitable consequence of the passing of time.  

[Quinvy]

Like I said earlier, thay have been saying the bottom will fall out of the market since the 80's. Yet it just keeps going up.

[YourArsenal]

There's already plenty of collectors in their 20s, 30s and 40s buying big ticket records, and I assume there still will be in 10 and 20 years.

[Richard Free]

The value just doesn't matter .i will be buried with my records 

 

[Tai-pan]

Okay here we go again,

How many times have we talked about this in the past fifteen years? Here goes....

Rare soul vinyl will always increase in value at least to the rate of inflation.

If you have an ear for sounds, then you will buy accordingly and be ahead of the curve.

Supply is limited, but popularity is increasing, it always, will. New geographies etc.

A cross spread collection will always outstrip the normal rate of alternative investments.

For high growth, you need the ear for unknown, under rated discs.

Prices will never fall (forget about the death / checking out debate), it wont' even register on the demand curve. Sure there will moments when discs become available. But its not going to ever be a bust of prices. Too many dealers around to buy up short term surplus and manage the supply as such.

All clear???

Andy Killick

[Russ Vickers]

Okay here we go again,

How many times have we talked about this in the past fifteen years? Here goes....

Rare soul vinyl will always increase in value at least to the rate of inflation.

If you have an ear for sounds, then you will buy accordingly and be ahead of the curve.

Supply is limited, but popularity is increasing, it always, will. New geographies etc.

A cross spread collection will always outstrip the normal rate of alternative investments.

For high growth, you need the ear for unknown, under rated discs.

Prices will never fall (forget about the death / checking out debate), it wont' even register on the demand curve. Sure there will moments when discs become available. But its not going to ever be a bust of prices. Too many dealers around to buy up short term surplus and manage the supply as such.

All clear???

Andy Killick

F*ck me, the voice of common sense at last.....anyway who buys records on the scene as an investment, once I own a record, it has no monetary value to me, as its about the quality of the record, not the price of it....

Russ 

[Len]

The value just doesn't matter .i will be buried with my records 

 

Taking it back underground - nice one  (I hope you have many years left first though btw)

All the best,

Len 

[Quinvy]

F*ck me, the voice of common sense at last.....anyway who buys records on the scene as an investment, once I own a record, it has no monetary value to me, as its about the quality of the record, not the price of it....

Russ 

Thats fine Russ if you are lucky enough to have the financial stability to enable this utopia. 

I would love to still have my records, but every bit of money I had was in them. So when I lost my job they had to go. 

[Winsford Soul]

Why would you class it as a investment. It's a life time of love for this music that is the attraction. Not what I can get out of it money wise. Yes I have bought records that have increased in value but I have also bought records that haven't. But I have bought them all because of my love of them .

Steve

[Bbrich]

Are the big prices because the records really are rare or because there is actually quite a few but most dont want to sell and a lot would want one ?  for example does anyone have any idea how many of say Tomangoes, Yvonne Baker, Ivories etc...etc...  actually exist?

I would guess that If it is the former then prices are much more likely to stay high than if a lot more are likely to hit the market in the future.

[Dobber]

i reckon cos there is such a mixture of northern,modern,funk..etc,and a mixture of geography,collectors,dj's (wanna be dj's) traders and dealers,that there is enough of this shit to see us all out! and naturally prices increase and decrease with demand and availabilitie as it does with most things!

as for investment,unless you sell and walk away,you will just keep ploughing the cash back into more/others records,cos we all do it,and were all as daft as eachother!

[Guest johnny hart]

Where do we keep coming up with the figure of Thousands of young NS fans waiting to take up the collecting"Torch".Consider the Source 3 years ago the adorable JM ,Manny ,boasted an auction pool of 100,000.world wide on his massive books,in recent months he has revised this figure down to a mere 20,000. hungery souls?  Anacedotal evidence on Soul source would suggest the same old great names, new blood ,idont meet any just the same sad old "Gits" like me, and maybe 20 people bidding on the monster rarities ,hardly a Tsunami ! So you new generation of " Young bloods waiting in the wings; Reveal Yourselves to Johnny !

[Steve G]

Trophy records will hold their prices, not sure much else will except for new / recent discoveries which by their nature have to be rare . 

 

 

[jimmy clitheroe]

Rare Funk ,ska ,Psych, Prog Rock etc are all making big bucks on EBay , This music was made in the 60's early 70's , Just wondered who buying it? I don't think everyone who buys rare soul has/ or is active on the rare soul scene.imho 

[Quinvy]

Agree with Jimmy, seems to be quite a few rare vinyl collectors of all genres. Nothing to do with the "Scene" as we know it. 

Just like collectors of rare art or porcelain etc.

[Hooker1951]

The value just doesn't matter .i will be buried with my records 

 

Just let me know where your plot is only to put flowers on ect,nothing sinister,

Keep on collecting

ML

[Okehdownsouth]

I agree that the long term investment value is probably not that great, short term however sometimes is really good. I few years ago I bought hundreds of records to replace the ones that I sold when I left the scene in 1979 and some I bought 2 or 3 copies just because they seemed cheap, they were records that I liked and they were in good nick. Recently I have sold quite a few of the doubles on ebay and through John Manship and an investment of a couple of thousand turned into almost 6 grand!. What did I do with the money?

Bought more records of course! 

[Guest]

As many have already pointed out, I don't think that we are going to see an influx of new collectors who can match the old generation of collectors who will disappear from the scene within the next decades. Although there is probably always going to be people interested in old vinyl and also in soul records since there is so much quality music within this genre, I think that the original northern soul movement was unique and that it attacted far more fans than it would be possible to do today. I therefore think that prices are likely to drop, but I'm not sure how much. But if prices do drop, then it might attract new collectors since the current high prices probably put some people off from collecting soul 45s. I also think that the value of certain records that had a sound that appealed specifically to the northern scene might go down, whereas other records might hold their value or even increase in value if they appeal to the younger generation of collectors.

At the end of the day, it is difficult to predict trends and therefore also prices. All kinds of things can happen. And while it may seem that prices are doomed to fall, they might not fall as much as one could expect since there is so much quality within the genre that interest and demand will probably continue to flourish.   

 

Edited October 28, 2015 by SebDK

[Guest]

I have also noticed another trend in prices. As more tunes constantly become available on youtube, the average collector now has the opportunity to explore and discover a lot of tunes that were not available to him back in the day. I personally speculate that this affects prices in a certain way. I have noticed that the prices have gone up on a lot of these records that I once felt were quite cheap and yet great tunes that weren't too easy to acquire. And while it seems that prices have increased on a lot of these records that I once considered hidden gems, it also seems that the prices have decreased on some of these records that were priced high by dealers but actually weren't that good.

It seems that the fact that everyone now has access to so many tunes on youtube also makes it harder to come these tunes that seemed to have been overlooked and ignored by collectors.    

 

Edited October 28, 2015 by SebDK

[Richard Free]

One thing a lot of people have failed to note is the growth in collectors in Europe and the USA .Whilst I believe there are a lack of young collectors here .there seems quite a bunch of younger guys collecting in Europe and the USA .The soul nights I have been to in the US and parts of Europe are more mixed not just northern but playing a great mix of Latin ,Funk and r and b and sweet soul which I have found refreshing .they are not embarrassed to play cheapies which is also cool with me .

i think the younger crowd find this sort of scene more accessible than the northern scene here which is dominated by an older crowd (and yes I am old too)With lots of venues playing too many played out oldies .Angry response anyone ? 

 

 

[YourArsenal]

One thing a lot of people have failed to note is the growth in collectors in Europe and the USA .Whilst I believe there are a lack of young collectors here .there seems quite a bunch of younger guys collecting in Europe and the USA .The soul nights I have been to in the US and parts of Europe are more mixed not just northern but playing a great mix of Latin ,Funk and r and b and sweet soul which I have found refreshing .they are not embarrassed to play cheapies which is also cool with me .

i think the younger crowd find this sort of scene more accessible than the northern scene here which is dominated by an older crowd (and yes I am old too)With lots of venues playing too many played out oldies .Angry response anyone ? 

 

 

This is basically what I'm saying. There are collectors all over the world, many of them quite young, that will be buying records for years and years to come. They just might not go to the same soul nights you do ;)

There's probably a genuine chance of the soul scene in the UK becoming smaller over the next decade or two, but I don't think there will be a lack of collectors buying the records any time soon.

[Mellorful]

This is basically what I'm saying. There are collectors all over the world, many of them quite young, that will be buying records for years and years to come. They just might not go to the same soul nights you do ;)

There's probably a genuine chance of the soul scene in the UK becoming smaller over the next decade or two, but I don't think there will be a lack of collectors buying the records any time soon.

I think most accept some people will continue to collect records, but it's the price they pay for tunes that matters if you are collecting as an investment. Cheapies may grow in value but will they reach the lofty prices currently paid for the NS special tunes such as Tomangos, Salvadors, Lou Pride, Eddie Parker etc. If those special tunes fall in price then all the others tunes which are semi special in terms of cost are also likely to fall and the downward price snowballs. I suspect those overseas buyers looking for a Salvadors are unlikely to fork out $10K (£6K), hence when collectors fall from the perch and their families liquidate the estate the price falls as supply increases and the pool of potential buyers with large capital resources is reduced (because they are retired on modest pensions).

We are in a period when some of the NS community have paid off the mortgage, the kids have flown the nest and they now work in senior positions or well paid jobs hence have money available for hobbies, once retirement happens the income reduces and the capital available for hobbies also shrinks. That is why I regard the present as an 'Indian Summer' in terms of NS record prices,and winter will follow. I also wonder about the future of NS retail businesses that currently flourish when they are hit by a customer base with far less capital available to buy records (perhaps that topic will become another thread),      

Ask what would a financial analyst think about 'NS record collecting as an investment' make of the market in the medium/long term, If it was that that good with a real future they would be setting up businesses to buy the records as a commodity but they haven't, Hence my analysis in the previous paragraph tries to explain the current state of inflated NS record prices.    

[Richard Free]

Agree with Mellorful .the genuinely rare records where there are only a few known copies will maintain their price .lots of stuff going for insane prices .no future investing in cheapies .obscure small label stuff the way to go .People distorting the genuine market value of records must simply have too much money

i buy records to listen to them .cheap or don't tell the wife records are generally not an investment but it's much more fun than collecting stamps or train spotting .

[MrsWoodsrules]

I've made my view known earlier in this thread, but what some are not taking into consideration is not so much buying as an investment, but when long term collectors find themselves sat on a large investment with a possibility to cash in, they'll (or a lot) want to be cashing in on all that money at some stage in the autumn of life.

obviously the big ticket & prestigious items will always command a premium always, don't think anyone is saying otherwise, the rest..,

I'm not so sure they'll be enough incumbents on the scene to take up all that slack. Yeah? NS is in a purple patch, I predict a downward curve, let's be honest most are at least in their 50s now, gonna be shuffling of this mortal coil in droves very soon.

im talking specifically about the high & sometimes ridiculousness of the prices of mid-range rare (supposedly) NS.

 

Aid

[Guest]

 

This is basically what I'm saying. There are collectors all over the world, many of them quite young, that will be buying records for years and years to come. They just might not go to the same soul nights you do ;)

There's probably a genuine chance of the soul scene in the UK becoming smaller over the next decade or two, but I don't think there will be a lack of collectors buying the records any time soon.

Although there are collectors all over the world, it still seems that there are lot more in the UK than anywhere else. At least, that's the impression I get when I sell records on sites like Discogs and eBay. When I sell soul 45s, most of them go to buyers in the UK. And I'm not sure that we will see a boom in new collectors that can match the numbers of collectors that are in the UK today.